← Segunda División 2010-11 · Sat, Apr 30, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Betis Balompié win | 67% | 64% | 1.40 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 21% | 4.50 | fair |
| Numancia win | 12% | 14% | 8.50 | value: +23% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Betis Balompié | Numancia |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 303.00 | 333.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1626.98 | 1451.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 26.75 | -11.54 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| league points | 69.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.97 | 1.29 |
| state index | 1.10 | -0.59 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |