← Segunda División 2010-11 · Sat, Apr 23, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tenerife win | 50% | 45% | 1.85 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.30 | fair |
| Villarreal B win | 21% | 29% | 4.50 | value: +30% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Tenerife | Villarreal B |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1392.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1404.23 | 1435.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -29.29 | -62.39 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| league points | 28.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 21.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 20.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 0.82 | 1.29 |
| state index | -1.13 | -1.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |