← Segunda División 2010-11 · Sun, Apr 17, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC Celta de Vigo win | 43% | 37% | 2.20 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 32% | 3.25 | fair |
| Albacete win | 28% | 32% | 3.30 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Albacete | RC Celta de Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 290.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1387.18 | 1529.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.56 | -46.88 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| league points | 29.00 | 56.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 0.88 | 1.70 |
| state index | -0.75 | -0.78 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |