← Segunda División 2010-11 · Sat, Apr 16, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win | 47% | 52% | 2.00 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.25 | fair |
| Ponferradina win | 24% | 21% | 4.25 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ponferradina | Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 289.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1367.27 | 1571.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.95 | -1.12 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.40 |
| league points | 26.00 | 63.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.79 | 1.91 |
| state index | -0.74 | 0.08 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |