← Segunda División 2010-11 · Sun, Apr 10, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salamanca win | 48% | 54% | 1.91 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.25 | fair |
| Ponferradina win | 23% | 18% | 4.33 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Salamanca | Ponferradina |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1369.07 | 1365.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.52 | -7.95 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.52 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| league points | 31.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 22.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.97 | 0.78 |
| state index | -1.16 | -0.91 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |