← Segunda División 2010-11 · Sun, Apr 10, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Numancia win | 45% | 52% | 2.10 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 30% | 25% | 3.10 | fair |
| Villarreal B win | 26% | 24% | 3.75 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Numancia | Villarreal B |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 313.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1463.97 | 1464.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.88 | -29.08 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| league points | 42.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.31 | 1.38 |
| state index | -0.01 | -0.61 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |