← Segunda División 2010-11 · Sun, Apr 10, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Girona win | 45% | 52% | 2.10 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 30% | 25% | 3.10 | fair |
| Las Palmas win | 25% | 23% | 3.75 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Girona | Las Palmas |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 313.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1494.80 | 1440.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -28.52 | 39.89 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| league points | 46.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 1.22 |
| state index | -0.26 | 0.09 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |