← Segunda División 2010-11 · Sat, Apr 9, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win | 64% | 65% | 1.50 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 22% | 4.20 | fair |
| Albacete win | 12% | 13% | 9.00 | value: +19% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | Albacete |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 282.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1577.38 | 1380.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.90 | -35.08 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.15 |
| league points | 62.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.94 | 0.88 |
| state index | 0.50 | -1.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.00 |