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Elche CF 1–0 RC Celta de Vigo

← Segunda División 2009-10 · Sun, May 16, 02:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Elche CF win46%2.00
Draw29%3.20
RC Celta de Vigo win24%3.90

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricElche CFRC Celta de Vigo
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.05
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days227.00684.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
elo1529.261470.08
elo momentum (last 5)24.080.81
form points (last 5)9.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.200.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.20
goals for avg (last 5)2.201.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.670.79
h2 goals (last 10)1.100.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.500.35
league points54.0046.00
league rank7.0012.00
matches since blank10.002.00
matches since clean sheet2.007.00
matches since win2.000.00
rest days7.008.00
season ppg1.501.28
state index0.54-0.11
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.20