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Elche CF 2–3 Villarreal B

← Segunda División 2009-10 · Fri, Apr 30, 02:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Elche CF win50%1.85
Draw28%3.30
Villarreal B win22%4.50

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricElche CFVillarreal B
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.10
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days211.00—
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
elo1552.951544.23
elo momentum (last 5)64.061.93
form points (last 5)13.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)2.000.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.401.00
goals for avg (last 5)2.401.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.060.97
h2 goals (last 10)0.801.10
ht lead rate (last 20)0.500.25
league points54.0053.00
league rank5.007.00
matches since blank8.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
rest days6.006.00
season ppg1.591.56
state index1.150.14
venue ppg (last 5)2.201.00