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Cordoba 2–1 Levante UD

← Segunda División 2009-10 · Sun, Apr 25, 02:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Levante UD win38%2.50
Draw31%3.00
Cordoba win30%3.25

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCordobaLevante UD
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.00
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days—663.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
elo1483.181561.85
elo momentum (last 5)35.0223.56
form points (last 5)10.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.801.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.400.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.991.81
h2 goals (last 10)0.501.10
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.25
league points45.0055.00
league rank10.003.00
matches since blank0.008.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
rest days7.009.00
season ppg1.361.67
state index0.500.63
venue ppg (last 5)2.401.60