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Girona 0–2 Xerez

← Segunda División 2008-09 · Sun, May 10, 02:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Xerez win45%2.10
Draw30%3.00
Girona win25%4.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGironaXerez
blown lead rate (last 20)0.200.05
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
elo1437.191587.79
elo momentum (last 5)-35.8843.59
form points (last 5)3.0015.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.001.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.400.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.402.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.700.79
h2 goals (last 10)0.201.10
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.45
league points42.0069.00
league rank16.001.00
matches since blank1.0020.00
matches since clean sheet3.000.00
matches since win3.000.00
rest days7.007.00
season ppg1.201.97
state index-0.881.12
venue ppg (last 5)1.202.60