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Real Sociedad de Fútbol 2–2 RC Celta de Vigo

← Segunda División 2008-09 · Sat, May 2, 02:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Real Sociedad de Fútbol win49%1.90
Draw29%3.10
RC Celta de Vigo win22%4.25

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricReal Sociedad de FútbolRC Celta de Vigo
blown lead rate (last 20)0.200.15
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days671.00305.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
elo1555.891428.99
elo momentum (last 5)8.34-10.49
form points (last 5)8.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.60-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.970.82
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.450.20
league points53.0040.00
league rank6.0016.00
matches since blank3.004.00
matches since clean sheet3.002.00
matches since win0.002.00
rest days6.006.00
season ppg1.561.18
state index0.35-0.73
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.40