⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Lorca FC 0–4 Castellon

← Segunda División 2006-07 · Sat, May 26, 02:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Lorca FC win36%2.55
Castellon win34%2.70
Draw30%3.10

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score3

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLorca FCCastellon
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.10
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
elo1420.161499.41
elo momentum (last 5)9.8512.76
form points (last 5)5.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.200.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.030.97
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.35
league points36.0050.00
league rank21.0013.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.002.00
matches since win1.000.00
rest days6.006.00
season ppg0.951.32
state index-0.230.11
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.20