⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Vecindario 2–1 Real Madrid B

← Segunda División 2006-07 · Sat, May 19, 02:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Real Madrid B win46%2.05
Draw29%3.30
Vecindario win25%3.80

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricVecindarioReal Madrid B
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.003.00
elo1324.811421.79
elo momentum (last 5)-22.00-8.09
form points (last 5)2.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.40-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)2.801.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.051.35
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.90
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.10
league points24.0044.00
league rank22.0019.00
matches since blank4.004.00
matches since clean sheet11.008.00
matches since win5.001.00
rest days7.007.00
season ppg0.651.19
state index-1.45-0.67
venue ppg (last 5)0.800.20