⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Málaga CF 3–1 Almeria

← Segunda División 2005-06 · Sat, May 27, 02:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Almeria win54%1.66
Draw27%3.30
Málaga CF win19%5.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricMálaga CFAlmeria
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.05
cards avg (last 5)0.600.00
coach days1030.00—
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d5.003.00
elo1306.121512.03
elo momentum (last 5)-22.64-10.06
form points (last 5)1.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-2.400.00
goals against avg (last 5)2.601.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.201.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.791.16
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.45
league points29.0061.00
league rank22.006.00
matches since blank1.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.004.00
matches since win20.000.00
rest days6.006.00
season ppg0.761.61
state index-2.62-0.04
venue ppg (last 5)0.201.40