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Real Madrid B 4–1 Málaga CF

← Segunda División 2005-06 · Sun, May 21, 02:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Real Madrid B win65%1.40
Draw22%4.33
Málaga CF win13%7.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricReal Madrid BMálaga CF
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.15
cards avg (last 5)0.000.60
coach days—1024.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.007.00
elo1502.481312.83
elo momentum (last 5)-14.00-18.23
form points (last 5)6.001.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.60-2.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.402.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.800.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.820.79
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.15
league points52.0029.00
league rank9.0022.00
matches since blank2.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win1.0020.00
rest days8.007.00
season ppg1.410.78
state index-0.07-2.59
venue ppg (last 5)2.600.20