⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Levante UD 1–0 Tenerife

← Segunda División 2005-06 · Sat, May 13, 02:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Levante UD win51%1.75
Draw30%3.00
Tenerife win19%4.75

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLevante UDTenerife
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days377.001534.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
elo1529.871440.94
elo momentum (last 5)20.1613.61
form points (last 5)10.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.600.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.401.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.741.06
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.800.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.25
league points60.0042.00
league rank3.0018.00
matches since blank4.005.00
matches since clean sheet1.001.00
matches since win1.001.00
rest days6.007.00
season ppg1.671.17
state index0.42-0.26
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.80