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Numancia 2–3 Eibar

← Segunda División 2003-04 · Sun, Apr 25, 02:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Numancia win53%1.70
Draw31%2.90
Eibar win16%5.50

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricNumanciaEibar
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
elo1581.101498.59
elo momentum (last 5)37.98-20.91
form points (last 5)13.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.600.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.201.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.841.56
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.20
league points62.0046.00
league rank1.008.00
matches since blank10.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.002.00
matches since win0.002.00
rest days7.008.00
season ppg1.881.39
state index1.20-0.33
venue ppg (last 5)3.000.20