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Tenerife 1–1 Leganes

← Segunda División 2002-03 · Sun, May 4, 02:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Tenerife win46%2.00
Draw32%2.88
Leganes win22%4.33

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricTenerifeLeganes
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.10
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days429.00—
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
elo1479.751437.01
elo momentum (last 5)-34.24-23.90
form points (last 5)3.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.60-1.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.000.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.791.37
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.35
league points43.0035.00
league rank10.0020.00
matches since blank2.000.00
matches since clean sheet3.004.00
matches since win3.004.00
rest days8.007.00
season ppg1.301.06
state index-0.51-0.95
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.00