← Serie B 2015-16 · Fri, May 20, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vicenza win | 52% | 35% | 1.88 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 36% | 3.72 | value: +33% |
| Perugia win | 22% | 29% | 4.47 | value: +30% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vicenza | Perugia |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 354.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1438.82 | 1473.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.28 | -34.48 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| league points | 48.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 1.32 |
| state index | -0.30 | -0.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |