← Serie B 2015-16 · Fri, May 20, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 56% | 24% | 1.62 | fair |
| Spezia win | 37% | 61% | 2.50 | value: +53% ⚠ |
| Ascoli win | 7% | 15% | 13.00 | value: +92% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Spezia | Ascoli |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 201.00 | 201.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1534.75 | 1389.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.00 | -20.53 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| league points | 65.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.59 | 1.12 |
| state index | -0.13 | -0.78 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |