← Serie B 2015-16 · Fri, May 20, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Livorno win | 62% | 47% | 1.58 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 29% | 4.43 | value: +31% |
| Virtus Lanciano win | 16% | 23% | 6.00 | value: +39% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Livorno | Virtus Lanciano |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 140.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1398.53 | 1423.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.88 | -9.44 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| league points | 41.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 21.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.15 |
| state index | -0.21 | -0.75 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |