← Serie B 2015-16 · Sun, May 15, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spezia win | 67% | 45% | 1.45 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 30% | 4.47 | value: +34% |
| Como 1907 win | 11% | 24% | 8.86 | value: +117% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Como 1907 | Spezia |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1199.00 | 196.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1304.83 | 1563.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.78 | 7.96 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.57 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| league points | 30.00 | 65.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 18.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 0.75 | 1.63 |
| state index | -1.37 | 0.43 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |