← Serie B 2015-16 · Sat, May 14, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virtus Entella win | 65% | 48% | 1.51 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 30% | 4.45 | value: +32% |
| Avellino win | 14% | 22% | 7.20 | value: +58% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Virtus Entella | Avellino |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 409.00 | 1413.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1490.81 | 1412.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.24 | -11.64 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.10 |
| league points | 61.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.52 | 1.23 |
| state index | -0.21 | -0.56 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |