← Serie B 2015-16 · Sat, May 14, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trapani win | 56% | 42% | 1.74 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.64 | fair |
| Crotone win | 17% | 30% | 5.69 | value: +71% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Trapani | Crotone |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 440.00 | 348.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1551.82 | 1568.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.02 | -17.26 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.50 |
| league points | 67.00 | 79.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.68 | 1.98 |
| state index | 0.51 | -0.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |