← Serie B 2015-16 · Sat, May 14, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modena win | 35% | 38% | 2.82 | value: +7% |
| Pescara win | 34% | 33% | 2.84 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 29% | 3.14 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Modena | Pescara |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1170.00 | 683.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1418.99 | 1547.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.76 | 39.32 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| league points | 42.00 | 68.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.05 | 1.70 |
| state index | -0.28 | 0.66 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |