← Serie B 2015-16 · Sat, May 14, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cesena win | 40% | 43% | 2.42 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 32% | 33% | 3.08 | fair |
| Novara win | 28% | 24% | 3.48 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cesena | Novara |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 348.00 | 348.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1516.59 | 1509.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.96 | 5.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| league points | 62.00 | 64.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.55 | 1.60 |
| state index | 0.05 | 0.03 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |