← Serie B 2015-16 · Sat, May 14, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cagliari Calcio win | 49% | 75% | 1.97 | value: +49% ⚠ |
| Draw | 27% | 16% | 3.67 | fair |
| Salernitana win | 24% | 9% | 4.07 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cagliari Calcio | Salernitana |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 348.00 | 683.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1592.68 | 1373.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.89 | 20.11 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.66 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| league points | 77.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.93 | 1.05 |
| state index | 0.59 | -0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |