← Serie B 2015-16 · Sat, May 14, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bari win | 56% | 33% | 1.74 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 28% | 3.83 | value: +7% |
| Brescia win | 19% | 40% | 5.18 | value: +105% ⚠ |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Brescia | Bari |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 348.00 | 165.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1444.02 | 1506.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.57 | -6.99 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| league points | 54.00 | 65.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.35 | 1.63 |
| state index | -0.74 | 0.02 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |