← Serie B 2015-16 · Sat, May 14, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ascoli win | 36% | 40% | 2.68 | value: +8% |
| Livorno win | 36% | 31% | 2.71 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.53 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ascoli | Livorno |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 195.00 | 134.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1407.91 | 1379.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.09 | -1.02 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| league points | 46.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.15 | 0.95 |
| state index | -0.64 | -0.83 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |