← Serie B 2015-16 · Fri, May 13, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRO Vercelli win | 41% | 16% | 2.38 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 30% | 3.25 | fair |
| Perugia win | 29% | 53% | 3.37 | value: +80% ⚠ |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Perugia | PRO Vercelli |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 347.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1487.57 | 1403.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.10 | -5.43 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| league points | 54.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.35 | 1.07 |
| state index | -0.35 | -0.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |