← Serie B 2015-16 · Sun, May 8, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pescara win | 59% | 57% | 1.65 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 25% | 4.05 | fair |
| Virtus Lanciano win | 17% | 19% | 5.89 | value: +11% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pescara | Virtus Lanciano |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 677.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1537.31 | 1435.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 43.98 | -5.73 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| league points | 65.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 1.18 |
| state index | 0.61 | -0.45 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |