← Serie B 2015-16 · Sat, May 7, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salernitana win | 40% | 42% | 2.44 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 32% | 30% | 3.04 | fair |
| Modena win | 28% | 28% | 3.48 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Salernitana | Modena |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 676.00 | 1163.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1374.14 | 1418.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 31.71 | 7.13 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| league points | 41.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.05 | 1.05 |
| state index | -0.17 | -0.58 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |