← Serie B 2015-16 · Sat, May 7, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crotone win | 38% | 51% | 2.54 | value: +30% |
| Draw | 31% | 30% | 3.12 | fair |
| Latina win | 30% | 19% | 3.20 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crotone | Latina |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 341.00 | 188.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1573.69 | 1412.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.43 | -29.83 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.25 |
| league points | 78.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.05 |
| state index | 0.38 | -1.13 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.20 |