← Serie B 2015-16 · Sat, May 7, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avellino win | 56% | 60% | 1.74 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | 3.79 | fair |
| Como 1907 win | 18% | 15% | 5.35 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Avellino | Como 1907 |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1406.00 | 1191.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1416.97 | 1300.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.20 | -12.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 0.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| league points | 48.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 22.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.23 | 0.74 |
| state index | -0.90 | -1.43 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |