← Serie B 2015-16 · Mon, May 2, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cesena win | 57% | 59% | 1.72 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 27% | 3.89 | value: +6% |
| PRO Vercelli win | 18% | 14% | 5.39 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cesena | PRO Vercelli |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 336.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1511.97 | 1406.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.42 | -5.34 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| league points | 58.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 1.53 | 1.11 |
| state index | -0.06 | -0.63 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |