← Serie B 2015-16 · Sun, May 1, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Como 1907 win | 36% | 32% | 2.68 | fair |
| Ternana win | 33% | 37% | 2.97 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 31% | 32% | 3.18 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Como 1907 | Ternana |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1185.00 | 243.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1308.79 | 1416.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.90 | -35.58 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.57 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| league points | 29.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 16.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 0.76 | 1.18 |
| state index | -1.32 | -1.05 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |