← Serie B 2015-16 · Sat, Apr 30, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virtus Lanciano win | 50% | 44% | 1.93 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.38 | fair |
| Avellino win | 21% | 26% | 4.70 | value: +22% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Virtus Lanciano | Avellino |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 1399.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1448.20 | 1404.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.07 | -51.03 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| league points | 46.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 1.18 |
| state index | -0.25 | -1.48 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |