← Serie B 2015-16 · Sat, Apr 30, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Perugia win | 36% | 43% | 2.73 | value: +17% |
| Bari win | 33% | 24% | 2.95 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 33% | 3.13 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Perugia | Bari |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 334.00 | 151.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1489.77 | 1523.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -30.94 | 17.35 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| league points | 52.00 | 64.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.37 | 1.68 |
| state index | -0.46 | 0.42 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |