← Serie B 2015-16 · Sat, Apr 30, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brescia win | 38% | 48% | 2.55 | value: +21% |
| Vicenza win | 31% | 24% | 3.11 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 28% | 3.15 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Brescia | Vicenza |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 334.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1462.26 | 1425.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.48 | 8.65 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| league points | 54.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.42 | 1.11 |
| state index | -0.55 | -0.41 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |