← Serie B 2015-16 · Sat, Apr 30, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ascoli win | 36% | 46% | 2.73 | value: +25% |
| Draw | 35% | 26% | 2.79 | fair |
| Salernitana win | 30% | 28% | 3.27 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ascoli | Salernitana |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 181.00 | 669.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1420.10 | 1371.11 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 41.62 | 34.67 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| league points | 45.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.18 | 1.05 |
| state index | 0.06 | -0.11 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |