← Serie B 2015-16 · Sun, Apr 24, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salernitana win | 38% | 43% | 2.60 | value: +13% |
| Livorno win | 32% | 29% | 3.08 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 27% | 3.17 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Salernitana | Livorno |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 663.00 | 114.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1357.48 | 1385.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.73 | -27.62 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| league points | 37.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.97 |
| state index | -0.58 | -0.99 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |