← Serie B 2015-16 · Sat, Apr 23, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ternana win | 45% | 52% | 2.16 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 31% | 27% | 3.19 | fair |
| Ascoli win | 24% | 21% | 4.04 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ternana | Ascoli |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 235.00 | 174.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1434.98 | 1401.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.70 | 11.39 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| league points | 45.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.22 | 1.14 |
| state index | -0.63 | -0.46 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |