← Serie B 2015-16 · Sat, Apr 23, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cagliari Calcio win | 74% | 68% | 1.31 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 21% | 5.49 | value: +13% |
| Virtus Lanciano win | 8% | 11% | 12.48 | value: +41% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cagliari Calcio | Virtus Lanciano |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 327.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1586.45 | 1442.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.13 | -13.36 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.78 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| league points | 72.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.95 | 1.22 |
| state index | 0.15 | -0.46 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |