← Serie B 2015-16 · Sat, Apr 23, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bari win | 53% | 51% | 1.84 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.42 | fair |
| Modena win | 18% | 19% | 5.29 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bari | Modena |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 144.00 | 1149.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1528.53 | 1411.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 29.37 | -5.17 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.04 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.70 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| league points | 63.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.70 | 1.05 |
| state index | 0.57 | -0.58 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |