← Serie B 2015-16 · Tue, Apr 19, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novara win | 44% | 35% | 2.24 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 32% | 3.35 | value: +8% |
| Virtus Lanciano win | 27% | 33% | 3.58 | value: +18% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Virtus Lanciano | Novara |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 323.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1432.45 | 1509.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.76 | -20.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| league points | 42.00 | 59.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 1.64 |
| state index | -0.46 | -0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |