← Serie B 2015-16 · Tue, Apr 19, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cagliari Calcio win | 53% | 61% | 1.85 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 27% | 23% | 3.68 | fair |
| Como 1907 win | 21% | 16% | 4.70 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Como 1907 | Cagliari Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1173.00 | 323.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1307.21 | 1592.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.98 | 0.74 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.57 | 1.78 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| league points | 28.00 | 71.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 14.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 0.78 | 1.97 |
| state index | -0.95 | 0.49 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |