← Serie B 2015-16 · Tue, Apr 19, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avellino win | 40% | 43% | 2.47 | value: +7% |
| Trapani win | 30% | 30% | 3.22 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 27% | 3.24 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Avellino | Trapani |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1388.00 | 415.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1414.46 | 1538.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -58.53 | 53.58 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| league points | 44.00 | 59.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 1.22 | 1.64 |
| state index | -1.41 | 1.08 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 3.00 |