← Serie B 2015-16 · Tue, Apr 19, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bari win | 37% | 39% | 2.66 | fair |
| Ascoli win | 32% | 33% | 3.05 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 29% | 3.12 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ascoli | Bari |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 170.00 | 140.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1409.71 | 1519.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.05 | 33.69 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 2.13 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| league points | 42.00 | 60.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 1.67 |
| state index | -0.09 | 0.56 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |